As voters head to the polls today for local elections across England, both Labour and Reform UK are framing the contest as a two-horse race. It’s a strategic narrative that effectively sidelines the Conservatives and benefits both parties.
Labour aims to hold on to moderate voters dissatisfied with the early performance of the government, highlighting that the only real alternative is the extreme Reform UK. This approach is designed to prevent Labour’s vote from fragmenting among Conservatives, Greens, Lib Dem’s and independents.
Conversely, Reform UK is targeting disaffected voters who voted Labour last time, particularly in working-class areas, positioning itself as the real alternative to both major parties. By doing so, Reform seeks to draw support away from Labour, consolidate the votes it has already taken from the Tories, and capitalise on any disillusion with mainstream politics.
This strategy creates a “Tory squeeze,” where both Labour and Reform benefit from the Conservatives’ declining popularity. Labour consolidates support from centrist voters, while Reform captures those seeking more radical change.
It’s a particularly potent strategy for these elections as the, largely rural, areas up for grabs are densely packed with people who traditionally voted Conservative.
The outcome of today’s elections will reveal the effectiveness of this framing and its impact on the traditional political landscape.
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