Midterms to become a referendum on Roe v Wade

Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are showing signs of trying to turn November’s midterm elections into a referendum on the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade.

In their latest batch of Meta ads the Democrats are using the issue of abortion rights to fundraise.

One advert calls for cash to “support efforts to elect more leaders to defend choice”.

This is a smart move.

Polling by YouGov suggests that a majority of voters disapprove of the ruling and provides evidence that it’s not purely split along party lines.

83% of Democrats disapprove of the ruling, along with 62% of Independents, and a not insignificant number of Republican voters (22%).

But the biggest electoral impact will likely be on the turnout of people who usually vote Democrat but were previously considering sitting out the midterms this year.

As fewer people tend to vote in midterms, research suggests that the turnout levels of existing supporters can play a bigger factor in the outcome of midterm congressional elections than it can at Presidential elections.

YouGov polling shows that the issue has made 50% of Democratic Party voters more likely to vote.

Even Donald Trump is apparently concerned that the strategy is likely to be successful – he’s reported as saying in private that overturning Roe v Wade will be “bad for Republicans”.

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