Some fascinating new research has been released which reveals surprising differences in the effectiveness of Conservative and Labour Party adverts.
The standout performer was a Labour advert featuring Wes Streeting speaking about the NHS.
Bombe, a new AI data targeting platform, commissioned the pollster Deltapoll to test the claimed efficacy of a range of Conservative and Labour Party adverts that have had significant media investment put behind them.
Deltapoll interviewed 1,077 adults in Great Britain online between 31st May to 3rd June 2024 and weighted the results to be representative of the British adult population as a whole.
They ran three tests which covered four different ads.
Before diving into the results it’s worth noting that we should be slightly sceptical about research respondents’ claimed behaviour in response to seeing an ad. Some of those reasons are outlined at the bottom of this post. But that’s not to say these results have no utility. They’re a lot better than the alternative which is no data at all!
The first test was between a Labour ad, showing Rishi Sunak announcing the general election in the rain with a headline saying “It’s time for change”, and a Conservative ad showing the U.K. as a magnet for small boats crossing the channel under a Labour government. The question asked which of the two adverts is most likely to make you vote for that political party.
Among all voters the Labour ad scored 28%, the Conservative ad 17%, “neither” 49% and “don’t know” 6%.
Among under 55s and Labour voters, the numbers preferring the Labour ad were, unsurprisingly, much higher.
In the second test, respondents were shown a Conservative Party ad on the pension “triple lock plus” policy and were asked if it made them more or less likely to vote Tory, or if it made no difference.
Among all respondents, 15% said more likely, 9% said less likely, 68% said no difference and 9% didn’t know.
Previous Conservative voters who also voted Remain in the EU referendum were the segment who found it most persuasive with 28% saying it made them more likely to vote Tory.
In the third test, respondents were shown a Labour Party ad on the NHS featuring Wes Streeting, Shadow Health Secretary, contrasting Labour’s record on the health service with that of the Conservatives. Respondents were asked if it made them more or less likely to vote Labour, or if it made no difference.
An impressive 37% of all respondents said it made them more likely to vote Labour. 8% said less likely, 52% said no difference and 3% didn’t know.
The segment most likely to find it persuasive is previous voters who also voted Leave in the EU referendum, of whom 63% said the ad would make them more likely to vote Labour.
—
Reasons to be sceptical of the results
Social Desirability Bias: Respondents may report what they think is the “correct” or socially acceptable behaviour rather than their true behaviour. They might want to present themselves in a favourable light or align their responses with what they perceive as the researcher’s expectations.
Hypothetical Bias: When asked how they would react to an ad, respondents’ hypothetical answers may differ significantly from their actual behaviour. People often overestimate their likelihood to engage in desirable actions and underestimate their likelihood to engage in undesirable ones.
Lack of Context: Respondents’ stated intentions may not take into account the various contextual factors that influence actual behaviour, such as competing advertisements, personal circumstances, or situational distractions.
Emotion and Cognition Disconnect: The emotional response to an ad, which often drives behaviour, might not be fully captured through self-reported measures. Respondents might rationalise their behaviour differently than how they would react in a real-world setting.
Strategic Responses: Some respondents might intentionally misrepresent their behaviour to skew the results for political reasons. They know the results will be published and want “their side” to look good.
politicaladvertising.co.uk 
1 Comment