If a British political party is perceived to have the strongest leader and is also seen as the most trusted to run the economy, it emerges from the general election as the largest party.
That is the lesson from British election history dating back to 1979.
It is based on “fundamentals” like this that, as it stands, one can feel confident in predicting a Labour Party victory at this year’s U.K. general election.
Keir Starmer is seen as the best Prime Minister and Labour are ahead on perceptions of their ability to handle the economy.
However, the belief amongst those running the Conservative Party’s campaign is that they have a narrow path to victory as they think that closing the gap on these two crucial areas is not out of the question.
They point to the fact that the Labour leader’s score as “Best PM” is largely unchanged from what it was when the current prime minister took office (34%) and that Starmer’s score is lower than most other leaders who have gone on to win general elections. YouGov polls closest to voting day in previous general elections had Boris Johnson on 41% in 2019, David Cameron in 2015 on 40% and Tony Blair on 37% in 2005.
The Conservatives believe they stand a chance of dragging Starmer’s favorability ratings down through a barrage of attacks during a general election campaign in which more voters will “switch on” to politics and reappraise the Labour leader.
And on the economy, provided inflation continues to come down, they expect the benefits of lower taxation, reduced mortgage rates and declining energy bills to start to make voters feel like they can make financial ends meet more easily. This may in turn boost perceptions of the Conservative’s economic performance.
We saw this narrative play out in the most recent Conservative Party election broadcast where Rishi Sunak used a flip chart and marker pen to explain to voters the context he’s leading in and how he’s tackling the issues facing the country.
The election broadcast is a very effective piece of communication. It plays to Sunak’s strength as a candidate – competent, pragmatic and approachable.
It also very clearly outlines the narrative that I expect we’ll see from Sunak from now until the general election, which is that the economy is pointing in the right direction and that by sticking with his plan and tried and tested leadership, the future is going to be better.
The creative approach of the election broadcast was a gift to people wanting to take the piss out of the Conservative Party.
It would have been so obvious that social media users would do this that I suspect those behind the video anticipated it and continued anyway, believing that it would help drive views of the original version. If that was the strategy, I think it’s very clever.
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