The Liberal Democrats started their 2024 general election year with an ad van stunt designed to increase the fame of their leader and position themselves as the Conservative Party’s main opposition in ‘Blue Wall’ seats.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey drove an ad van displaying the message “Ed Davey’s Tory Removals” through Guildford, a Lib Dem target seat. Davey is also visiting nearby Blue Wall constituencies represented by senior Conservative cabinet ministers Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Communities Secretary Michael Gove.
The prominence of the name of the leader in the poster execution and the fact the van was driven by Davey himself is down to the fact that he is less famous than he needs to be.
YouGov’s ‘Fame tracker’ shows that just 60% of people have heard of Ed Davey. That’s lower than previous Lib Dem leaders such as Vince Cable (67%) and Nick Clegg (87%) and only slightly ahead of Jo Swinson (54%).
The reason for focusing on the Blue Wall is that whilst the Lib Dems had some success in winning Blue Wall by-elections in 2023, the latest polling shows that Labour are, at the moment, looking more likely to unseat Conservatives in this area of the country (polling is from Dec 4 2023 by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, with changes from 5 November in parentheses):
Labour 30% (-4)
Conservative 29% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 26% (+1)
Reform UK 11% (+5)
Green 3% (-1)
Other 1% (–)
Pollsters Redfield & Wilton Strategies define the Blue Walls as 42 seats which all meet five criteria: 1) The constituency is in the South of England 2) The constituency elected a Conservative MP at the 2015, 2017, and 2019 General Elections 3) At least 25% of adults in the constituency have a degree 4) The Remain vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the constituency was greater than 42.5% 5) The Conservatives hold the constituency on a majority of less than 10,000 over Labour OR less than 15,000 over the Liberal Democrats.
politicaladvertising.co.uk 