Inside the Numbers with Labour’s Polling Pro Peter McLeod

I recently had the immense pleasure of interviewing Peter McLeod, founder of Hold Sway, a research, insight and strategy agency, and a veteran of Labour’s 2015 and 2024 general election campaigns, for The Political Marketing Podcast.

Peter brings over 20 years of experience in market research and political polling, including a significant stint running the London office of the iconic Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR). Our conversation got deep into the weeds of how political campaigns truly operate, from the day-to-day grind to the high-stakes strategy behind every big decision.

The Polling Process: From Pandemic Zooms to Message Testing

Peter’s relationship with Labour under Keir Starmer’s leadership began right at the start of the pandemic in April 2020. He recounted an amusing scramble to set up their first online focus groups for Labour with only about 30 hours’ notice.

We discussed the frequency with which Labour speaks to voters. Peter explained that during a campaign period, Labour are in the field most nights of the week with focus groups and has polling going on constantly. This high-frequency research is essential for constantly checking:

• What messages are landing with voters?
• What content is doing well (and what isn’t)?
• Working out day-to-day what people are hearing.

Peter made clear his view that polls and research should be a tool for communications and campaigning, not for making policy. He believes policy decisions are made based on other factors, and the pollster’s job is to “test out different approaches to talking about it” and communicate the reality of how a policy announcement will land.

Dissecting the 2024 Election: Wide Support, Cautious Campaign

We spent a good amount of time tackling the most common post-election critique: that Labour’s support was wide but shallow.

Peter acknowledged that the numbers bear out the ‘wide but thin’ nature of the win – Labour won 411 seats on 35% of the vote. He described the 2024 campaign as “cautious” and affected by the sense that the election was “Labour’s to lose”. The absolute priority was to win, and Peter said he “couldn’t fault that approach” given the history of blown leads in 1992 and 2015.

Peter highlighted the two most impactful Conservative messages during the campaign:

1. Attacks on Labour over tax.
2. The supermajority message, which he believes won the Tories back some voters and, crucially, reassured left-of-centre voters that the Conservatives were “definitely out of here,” making them feel safer voting Labour.

The Progressive Majority vs. Red Wall Dilemma

One of the most fascinating parts of our discussion focused on the current dilemma for the Labour government: which voters to prioritise. Peter provided a compelling argument against a “progressive voter only strategy”.

His reasoning is twofold:

• In three-quarters of the 411 seats Labour won, the second-place party was either the Conservatives or Reform UK. Winning a voter from these right-wing parties results in a two-point swing, making them strategically “worth twice as much” to the final result in that specific seat.
• The “left block” (Labour, Lib Dem, Green) just isn’t big enough nationally. Peter cited current averages showing that the right block (Tories or Reform) is actually ahead of the left block in England and Wales.

His conclusion: Labour “need to be winning people across on the other side” and should not give up on those voters who have shifted to Reform since the election.

The End of Party ID

Looking across his career, Peter believes the most profound change is the “ongoing total breakdown of our former two-party system”.

The whole notion of a rigid party identity has dropped massively. Voters have become “a bit more like shoppers”. They will try one party, and if it doesn’t work out, they are “quite happy to try another one”.

As he said, you can’t take any vote for granted. And that’s what makes political marketing more important – and more challenging – than ever.

You can find the full discussion with Peter McLeod wherever you get your podcasts.