Segmenting Broken Britain with Luke Tryl from More In Common

In the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast, I sit down with Luke Tryl, the UK Director of More in Common. 

Luke has had a fascinating career across government, politics and the third sector. Amongst other roles, he served as a Special Adviser to Nicky Morgan at the Department for Education and led strategy at Ofsted. 

Our conversation focuses on More in Common’s latest study, Shattered Britain. This isn’t just another poll; it’s a massive research project, with contributions from 20,000 people, that proposes a new framework for understanding the voter segments shaping our electoral landscape.

I loved their approach because it moves beyond the old left-right spectrum and proposes a new set of fault lines for what’s really driving voter behaviour.

The Four Drivers of a “Shattered” Britain

The report’s title, Shattered Britain, has a double meaning. It not only reflects that “broken” is the most common word Britons use to describe the UK, but it also captures a sense of exhaustion and tiredness amongst the public. Luke explains the four key drivers behind this widespread feeling of malaise:

• Declining Trust: It’s not just trust in politicians that’s plummeting, but also in institutions that traditionally commanded high levels of trust, like the police.
• Exhaustion: This is both a personal and political exhaustion. People are tired of a life that feels too hard, where they’re just surviving rather than living, and they’re exhausted by the endless politics of chaos. As one woman Luke spoke to in Runcorn put it, “I just feel like I’m not living. I’m just surviving”.
• Rising Threat Perception: People feel that the world is a more dangerous place, with a growing sense of international and domestic threats, ranging from global conflicts to crime in the UK.
• Lack of Control: This is perhaps the most potent driver. “Take back control” was a successful political slogan because it spoke to a fundamental human desire to be in charge of one’s own life. People feel that the next energy bill could knock them over the edge, and that the government isn’t in control of major issues like the NHS or borders.

Luke explains that while economic growth would certainly help improve sentiment, these feelings are baked into a deeper, more profound cynicism.

Luke suggests that is perhaps because the public voted in significant numbers for change in major elections in 2016, 2017, and 2019, and yet they feel they never got it, which makes them less likely to believe things are getting better, even when the data says they are.

The Eight New Fault Lines

So if the old left-right model is no longer fit for purpose, how should we think about voters? More in Common’s study outlines eight new fault lines that cut across traditional divides. These include:

• Preserve the institutions vs. burn them down
• Roll the dice vs. play it safe
• Mainstream media vs. alternative narrative
• Rise in conspiracy thinking vs. trust in experts
• Diversity vs. national identity
• Freedom of speech vs. protection from hate speech
• Simple fixes vs. complex problems
• In control of life vs. no control

Luke reveals some stunning insights here, particularly around the “burn them down” mindset. A staggering two in five Britons agree with the statement that when they think about political and social institutions, they “cannot help thinking, just let them burn”. He notes this anti-system sentiment is a new axis of political competition that parties like Reform are now dominating.

Another fascinating fault line is “Mainstream media vs. alternative narrative.” Luke explains that the pandemic played an outsized role in shaping people’s outlook here, with more people being subjected to alternative narratives and losing what he calls “come-off-it moments” – the simple, real-world interactions that might challenge a conspiracy theory.

The Seven Segments of Britain

More in Common’s report maps the UK population into seven distinct segments, each with a unique set of values, beliefs, and attitudes. Understanding these is the key to a new political map of the country. Here’s a quick summary:

Progressive Activists (12%) Politically active, globally minded and driven by social justice issues like climate change and equality. They take strong, sometimes uncompromising positions and often feel alienated from mainstream politics.

Incrementalist Left (21%) Community-oriented and left-of-centre but prefer gradual reform over radical change. They trust experts and institutions, dislike conflict, and are often tuned out of day-to-day politics.

Established Liberals (9%) Prosperous, confident and trusting of institutions, they believe the system broadly works. They emphasise individual agency, value evidence and expertise, and have faith in democratic processes.

Sceptical Scrollers (10%) Digitally native and distrustful of mainstream institutions. Shaped by the pandemic, they prefer alternative information sources, follow influencers, and are more open to conspiratorial thinking.

Rooted Patriots (20%) Patriotic and economically interventionist but socially conservative. They feel ignored by political elites, worry about migration and community decline, and want common-sense leadership without overthrowing the system.

Traditional Conservatives (8%) Respectful of authority and tradition, they emphasise personal responsibility and established norms. They are sceptical of immigration and rapid change, but remain optimistic about the future.

Dissenting Disruptors (20%) Angry and disconnected, they distrust institutions and oppose multiculturalism. They seek radical change, strong leadership, and movements that promise to upend the status quo.

Luke and I discussed how the seven segments map to different party support and how understanding these segments is crucial for political parties to craft their strategy.

We delve into how Labour managed to secure a landslide victory in the recent election, and Luke explains that their support, while broad, is actually quite shallow; they didn’t win over 50% of any of the seven segments.

We also explore the collapse of the Conservative vote. The segments reveal how their old coalition broke down, with different groups peeling away to other parties.

Finally, we discuss the rise of Reform, and which segments have been fuelling their growth. This is particularly insightful for understanding how a new party can gain ground in the current political climate by appealing to a specific combination of these segments.

It’s an incredibly insightful conversation. More in Common’s framework gives us a new way to understand what’s really happening in our politics. To get the full story, listen to the complete Episode 6 of The Political Marketing Podcast with Luke Tryl, and be sure to check out the full Shattered Britain report.